About

Purpose

MI Safe Start Map is a dashboard designed to monitor the status of COVID-19 indicators across the state of Michigan. The dashboard tracks and displays the current risk level of Michigan regions and counties due to COVID-19. The goals are twofold:

  • To assist public health officials in making state, regional, and county-level decisions related to COVID-19;
  • To provide the general public with insight into indicators that affect these public health decisions.

In line with the ending of the COVID-19 Public Health Emergency Declaration on May 11, 2023, MI Start Map archived the Risk Level Framework views beginning May 12,2023, and introduced a new view called Active Metrics that provides the current active reported metrics related to COVID-19. Historical risk level information remains available in the archived Risk Level Frameworks.

Disclaimers

This dashboard presents risk and capacity indicators that are taken into consideration during the State of Michigan's development and implementation of the MI Safe Start Plan. As applicable, each indicator is assigned a level of risk. Those levels are taken into consideration, with other epidemiologic information, when assigning the overall risk level for a region. The State of Michigan's decisions about the MI Safe Start plan also take into consideration mitigation and economic factors, among other factors.

On September 22, this site switched to a new set of names for the risk levels, and a new color scheme. The revised names and color scheme are intended to reduce confusion with the state's Economic Recovery Phases associated with the MI Safe Start Plan. There is an additional higher threshold level for cases, and an additional intermediate threshold for percent positivity. The expansion of risk thresholds is intended to align with thresholds from national systems.

The COVID-19 pandemic is a rapidly evolving and unpredictable viral outbreak. The data and associated risk indicators represented here are derived from state and public sources that may contain inaccuracies and that are frequently updated and/or revised. Consequently, there are times that the indicators may be or appear to be inaccurate or conflicting. All data presented on this site is subject to change. The information presented on this site is for informational purposes only, does not constitute legal or medical advice, and does not replace or supersede any guidance or directives issued from the State of Michigan in connection with its MI Safe Start plan. Use caution in making any decisions based on limited or transient data presentations such as those appearing in this dashboard.

Michigan Economic Recovery Council (MERC) Regions

The regions on the map were developed by the Michigan Economic Recovery Council (MERC). MERC regions were developed by merging Michigan's Emergency Preparedness Regions and Michigan's labor sheds – the major areas of the state where people live and travel to work based on U.S. Department of Labor data – so that any outbreak resulting from a return to work could be handled effectively under public health laws.

Data Sources

Last Updated

Data last uploaded on March 13, reflecting cases and deaths through March 12 and tests through May 08. Reports on or after May 08 may not yet reflect complete data. For that reason, indicators and trends are not calculated for May 08 or later.

Testing

Laboratory testing data are those diagnostic tests reported to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. By default, data displayed do not include the cases among prisoners in Correctional Facilities. Select the "correctional facilities" check-box to include them. By default, data displayed include PCR tests only. Selecting the “antigen tests” check-box will include COVID-19 antigen test results in the Test Result metrics, but not in the overall calculation of the statewide, region, or county MI Start Map Risk Level. Antigen tests are a more rapid but less sensitive test than PCR tests, and results from antigen tests are often confirmed with a PCR test if an individual is positive but asymptomatic or negative but symptomatic. More details on PCR and antigen tests available in the “Indicator Details” section.

Cases

Case data are from the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS), the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services' web based communicable disease reporting system. Cases are attributed to date of illness onset. If illness onset date is unavailable, date of testing is used. If date of testing is unavailable, date of referral to MDSS is used. Date attributions are subject to change over time as better data become available. By default, data displayed do not include the cases among prisoners in Correctional Facilities; select the "correctional facilities" check-box to include those cases. By default, probable cases as well as laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases are included; select the "probable cases" check-box to exclude those cases. By default, probable cases as well as laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 cases are included; de-select the "probable cases" check-box to exclude those cases.

Deaths

Death data are from the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). Laboratory-confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths are included. Displayed dates represent dates of death. If date of death is unavailable, date of last status change in MDSS is used. On January 3rd, 2023, data processing for deaths was revised to match the most current MDHHS methods. Dates and data are subject to change over time as better data become available. By default, data displayed do not include the cases among prisoners in Correctional Facilities. Select the "correctional facilities" check-box to include them.

Testing

Laboratory testing data are those diagnostic tests reported to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. By default, data displayed do not include the cases among prisoners in Correctional Facilities. Select the "correctional facilities" check-box to include them.

Syndromic

Syndromic data is based on visits to emergency rooms and urgent care facilities. The statistic displayed is the percentage of presenting patients who had COVID-like symptoms, as reported to the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. Data is only available statewide and for MERC regions, not for individual counties.

Compare – Race, Ethnicity, Age Group, and Gender

Case, death, and hospitalized cases data is reported by region, race, ethnicity, age group and gender on the Compare page. This demographic comparison data is obtained from case records in the Michigan Disease Surveillance System (MDSS). Note that the hospitalization data between the demographic compare page and other locations within MI Start Map may not align, due to differing data source availability.

On the demographic breakdowns on the Compare page, the “% deaths” shows the percent of COVID-19 deaths recorded in MDSS that occur in each demographic group. The “% cases hospitalized” shows the percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations recorded in MDSS that occur in each demographic group. Data may be missing for demographic variables in the case report, as shown by the “Unknown” line.

Disparities are marked by an icon if a particular demographic group has more than their expected share of cases, deaths, or hospitalizations, based on having at least 33% more cases, deaths, or hospitalizations per million than the general population.

In order to present the most complete data, the Demographics Comparison Metrics are displayed each Tuesday, with the most recent available data as the Tuesday of one week ago.

Region Risk Determinations

Official region risk determinations and explanations are provided periodically by the Michigan Department of Health and Human Services. They are based on overall evaluation by public health officials, taking into consideration individual indicators from this site along with other epidemiologic information. Engagement phases, COVID-19 guidance, and current restrictions in Michigan can be found at https://www.michigan.gov/coronavirus.

The most recent region risk determination prior to the selected date are used to color-code the map regions on the main page and the explanation text that is shown on the top right side of the main page.

From May 16 to August 14, a previous vocabulary of risk levels was used. Those risk determinations are no longer displayed on the map because they are not comparable to the levels in the current system. For those interested in the historical determinations, they are available in this linked PDF.

County Risk Calculations

The overall calculated risk level for each county is taken as the 7-day average daily cases per million or percent test positivity risk level, whichever is worse. A county risk level may not improve until it has experienced a decline of at least 14 days following the most recent level change. In calculating test positivity percentages, only PCR test results are considered.

Data Updates

Official data are sometimes revised to correct errors or the arrival of new information about previously reported cases and deaths. Data in the dashboard about earlier dates always reflect the best currently available data, not what was known as of particular dates in the past.

Indicator Details

Test Results

Percent Positive Tests

The percent positive tests metric is calculated as the number of positive tests divided by the total number of tests for a particular day. When testing levels are stable, this metric identifies increases or decreases in the epidemic relative to other causes of respiratory infection. This metric is commonly used in community monitoring studies of influenza and other respiratory viruses. Evaluations of percent positivity (number of positive tests / total number of tests) also enable a look at adequacy of testing in a population. Two types of tests are available for detecting COVID-19 infections: PCR tests (which detect genetic material within a viral particle) and Antigen tests (which detect one or more specific proteins on a viral particle). While PCR tests are considered the gold standard, Antigen tests can be completed faster. It is common practice to confirm the results of an Antigen test with a PCR test, as Antigen tests are less sensitive than PCR tests.

Number of Tests Over Prior 7 Days

This is the total number of tests performed over the previous 7 days. Testing is important to identifying COVID-19 cases, and may drive up new case volume. Use this metric to see if there has been an increase or decrease in testing over a week that could affect case counts.

New Cases

Number of New Cases

The number of new cases is a count of the cases with onset on that particular day. Cases are attributed to date of illness onset. If illness onset date is unavailable, date of testing is used. If date of testing is unavailable, date of referral to MDSS is used. Date attributions are subject to change over time as better data become available.

Number of daily cases per million

The number of daily cases per million is the number of new cases with onset on that day divided by the number of people in that county or MERC region and then multiplied by one million. It is adjusted to a "per million people" scale so that counties and regions can be easily compared.

Threshold Ranges

Threshold ranges provide a way to divide continuous outcomes into discrete categories. For example, any number between 40 and 70 daily cases per million is mapped to the letter "C", with 20-40 daily cases per million letter "B". The particular threshold levels selected have been determined by public health experts.

3 Day Case Surge

3-day case surge is defined as 3 consecutive days in which there is an increase of 10% or more in new cases each day. Given the high infectiousness of the virus, this metric provides early signals of a sudden increase in infection.

Compare – Race, Ethnicity, Age Group, and Gender

Percent Deaths

“% of Deaths” shows the percent of COVID-19 deaths recorded in MDSS that occurred in each demographic group.

Percent Cases Hospitalized

“% of Hospitalized Cases” shows the percent of COVID-19 hospitalizations recorded in MDSS that occurred in each demographic group.

Unknown Demographics

Data may be missing for demographic variables in the case report, as shown by the “Unknown” line.

Disparity Identification

Disparities are marked by an icon if a particular demographic group has more than their expected share of cases, deaths, or hospitalizations, based on having at least 33% more cases, deaths, or hospitalizations per million than the general population.


For more information, please see the Framework for Monitoring COVID-19 Public Health Indicators.

Additional Data and Modeling Updates

For additional data and modeling updates from our team and MDHHS, please see Data and Modeling Updates

Who Built It

MI Safe Start Map has been collaboratively developed by a group of volunteer faculty, students, alumni and friends of the University of Michigan School of Information and the University of Michigan School of Public Health.

University of Michigan School of Information logo

Michael Hess, SI Project Lead

UMSI Project Team

Eytan Adar, James Benjey, Nupur Bindal, Claire-Isabelle Carlier, Yuxuan Chen, Kirtana Choragudi, Krista Dunger, Cassie Eddy, Kyle Essenmacher, Alex Fidel, Ella Gazdecki, Mark Halliwell, Ashley Hampton, Willa Hua, Yaro Kaminsky, Rhea Kulkarni, Ani Madurkar, Emil Meireles, Ben Mullins, Mustafa Naseem, Emily Oxford, Emery Pollack, Cleo Pontone, Ashwin Rajadesingan, Paul Resnick, Michael Rigney, Dominique Roitman, Yuncheng Shen, Jessie Singh, Kyle Smith, Kris Steinhoff, Sophia Timko, Etiowo Usoro, William Zhang

University of Michigan School of Public Health logo

Marisa Eisenberg, SPH Project Lead & Principal Investigator

UMSPH Project Team

Andrew Brouwer, Stephanie Choi, Jeremy D'Silva, Peter DeJonge, Julie Gilbert, Michael Hayashi, Sharon Kardia, Emily Toth Martin, Ashley Murphy, Joshua Petrie, Michael Rigney, Jon Zelner

Contact Us

To contact us, send email to covid-dashboard@umich.edu.